Question 2202

To predict the weather for three days (Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday), a simple computer simulation uses the following model to determine the likelihood of rain:

The probability that it rains on Monday is 0.5. For Tuesday and Wednesday, the probability of rain is

  • 0.1 higher than the probability of raining the previous day if it rained the previous day,
  • half the probability of raining the previous day if it did not rain the previous day.
(2 marks) (a) Find the probability that it rains on all three days.
(3 marks) (b) Find the probability that it rained on at least two days.
(3 marks) (c) Find the probability that it rained on the first day, given that it rained on the third day.

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